According to a recent report from Rabobank, Australia’s avocado supply is set to reach 170,000 metric tonnes in the upcoming season, which will also see exports lifted to record levels.
After a slow 2024/25 season, this growth signals new opportunities for Australia to leave its mark on the massive global avocado industry.
Green growth
Avocados are a popular fruit packed full of healthy fats, fibre, potassium, folate and vitamins. The trees thrive in warm climates with full sun, rich organic soil and good drainage.
Thanks to Australia’s diverse climate, avocado crops thrive year-round, with processing facilities handling millions of avocados a day. Since 2014, Australia’s annual production volume has increased from 57,595 tonnes to 131,385 tonnes, signalling a rapid increase in both quantity and value.
Despite this success, the 2024/25 season saw avocado production decline by around 15 per cent. But RaboResearch senior analyst Michael Harvey says this is not reflective of the industry’s long-term growth trajectory. Instead, it is a symptom of natural biennial bearing cycles.
“Avocado trees have a tendency to produce a heavy crop in one season, followed by a lighter crop in the next season. It’s a natural production cycle that results in supply fluctuations,” explains Michael.
In fact, the sector has welcomed structural expansion in recent years, as more plantings and new yields from orchards reaching maturity combine to set production on an overall positive path.
Queensland remains Australia’s largest avocado-producing state, responsible for 50 per cent of national supply, followed by Western Australia.
According to Michael, “growing conditions for the commencement of the 2026 season have been most favourable in these key regions.”
Ripe and ready
In 2025, Australian avocado exports broke records with around 18,400 metric tonnes going to overseas markets. As producers build a presence in Asia and the Middle East, more and more produce is being exported from the orchards now maturing.
“Established markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia remain key buyers, while emerging markets across Southeast Asia and the Middle East are creating new growth opportunities,” says Michael.
“Improved yields and a growing reputation for high-quality fruit are also having an impact. More broadly, rising global avocado consumption continues to underpin demand for Australian exports.”
Globally, avocado exports have more than quadrupled over the last 15 years, and are expected to continue growing. Mexico and Chile are the largest producers, yet Rabobank believes they may be reaching saturation, with new players stepping in to meet the increasing demand.
Mexico and Chile deliver approximately 14 kilograms and nine kilograms per capita/per annum respectively, yet have limited space for expansion. In comparison, large population markets such as the EU have more growth potential.
“Countries such as Italy, Germany and Turkey are exhibiting rapid relative growth, pointing to broad-based adoption rather than niche consumption,” says Michael.
“For Australia, rising global supply creates both opportunities and challenges. Expanding demand in Asia provides export opportunities, particularly as Australian production rebounds and export volumes hit record levels.
“But increased competition from other exporting nations means Australia will need to continue focusing on market development, product quality and supply chain efficiency to maintain its position in international markets.”
A pit stop
Despite this positive development, risks remain throughout the avocado industry. More specifically, climate change continues to deliver unstable weather patterns that impact growth. The developing El Niño will heighten weather risks, but in an uneven and unpredictable pattern.
“Rather than a broad supply squeeze, El Niño will likely increase variability of yields and fruit sizes across regions, thereby amplifying seasonal imbalances and market volatility,” Michael says.
Guac on
Domestically, abundant supply is expected to keep avocado prices relatively low.
“Aussies should feel confident buying local avocados because we’re well supplied with high-quality, locally grown fruit for most of the year, and this abundant supply helps to keep retail prices relatively affordable,” explains Michael.
“While New Zealand avocados are sometimes imported to fill seasonal supply gaps, local production remains the backbone of the market and is expected to rebound strongly in coming seasons. Buying Australian-grown avocados supports local growers and takes advantage of the strong domestic supply currently available to consumers.”
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